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This amazingly cool webpage lets you play around with epidemiological models for COVID-19. It also explains some of my own thinking on how to respond to COVID-19, though the people who did the page have a much deeper understanding of those models than I do. (But I did hack together some simple epidemiological models and play with them a bit to get a feel for how disease spread works.). I very strongly recommend playing around with the models (which is easier and more intuitive than typing some parameters into an interactive Python shell and then debugging your SEIR model when you get negative numbers or something).

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This is the type of theory that only works post hoc. Oh look, we collected 30 years of data and spent years analyzing it, with perfect hindsight we can now say that in the year 20XX government spending should have been Y instead of Z. 041b061a72